The Thrashers gave up 24 shots in the first period last night and 42 over 60 minutes on their way to a 5-4 loss to the Devils and as Ron Hainsey said following the game, “Bad stuff is going to happen when you’re giving up 45 shots” which is what the Thrashers averaged in games against New York, Dallas and New Jersey this week.
The Thrashers have given up 40 or more shots in nine games this season and are averaging a league-worst 34.9 shots per game. The talk in the locker room after the game was that the Thrashers have to do something about the opposing shot totals, and common sense says that they’re right. The more you let teams shoot the more they’re going to score, right?
Here’s the weird thing.
The Thrashers are 5-2-2 in the nine games in which they’ve given up 40 or more shots.
Take a look at their record compared to opposing shots:
When 40+ shots are allowed: 5-2-2 (12 points/1.3 points per game)
When 35-39 shots are allowed: 6-1-1 (13 points/1.625 points per game)
When 30-34 shots are allowed: 5-4-0 (10 points/1.11 points per game)
When under 30 shots are allowed: 2-6-0 (four points/.5 points per game)
So it turns out that the Thrashers have been defying conventional wisdom all season long and are actually having much more success when they give up higher numbers of shots than when they play stingy defense. The Thrashers have earned 25 points in the 17 games in which they surrendered 35 or more shots and just 14 in the 17 games when they held the opposition to 34 or fewer.
And it’s not just shot totals that tell an odd story- it’s shot differential. In their wins the Thrashers have been outshot by an average of 6.9 shots while in their losses the margin is just 3.15 shots.
The question is if this trend of winning games in which they give up a lot of shots and get outshot badly is something they can sustain or if they’ve just been remarkably lucky and have gotten by on the strength of their NHL-best 11.3 shooting percentage.
Based on what was said in the locker room last night I think most players would prefer not to find out and that they’d rather cut down on opposing shots. I asked Ron Hainsey how they go about doing that and he gave the blunt type of response we’ve come to expect from him.
“Attention to defensive play from the redline back and turnovers going forward. Talking in our own end. Paying attention in our own end. Paying attention in front and clearing rebounds- pretty much all areas of defensive hockey that need to be improved, except for goaltending. There’s just no way around it.”
Strong words from the alternate captain. It’s going to be interesting to see if the overall team approach to defense is going to change, and don’t think for a moment it’s just an issue for the six defensemen that are dressing each night. Any improvements are going to have to include better defensive play by the forwards in the neutral zone and defensive zone.
Its got to start at the top, with a coach who believes in defense first. Otherwise, that’s never going to be where the emphasis is placed.
For Anderson offense is always first…and its showing, defensively.
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I think the reason we have a poor record when we have a stingy defense and give up less than 30 shots is because we don’t play offense then. The team focuses so much on defense they forget to score goals too.
Sam, you have to understand that Anderson’s system is not just offense first, the best way to play defense is to NOT play in your end of the ice, thus playing on the other team’s end may seem only offensive but it is a very effective defense as well.
However, the team obviously has not been playing enough in the other team’s end.
Seems to me the biggest problems are with simple things. At the game last night it seemed like everytime one of the Thrashers tried to clear a puck or knock it out of the Devils reach it bounced over their stick and turned into a rush for the Devils. I cannot even count how many times the Thrashers fanned on passes to get out of the zone or to continue the rush through the neutral zone. Better passing (especially to get out of our zone) and fewer turnovers makes a big difference. Maybe they need to go back to some basic passing and puck handling drills during team practices.
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Jason, I understand Anderson’s focus just fine. He’s re-iterated it many times over the past season and a half.
Its IS offense first. Defense pinching and shooting. Its his focus. Toby shooting. Schubert’s hard shot. Bogo pinching and shooting. Everything is offense. Even his response to us allowing too many SOG is we’re not shooting enough. Really. It was in the ajc.
So, please don’t tell me what I’m not understanding. It may not compute logically, but it is his system and his philosophy: defense through more offense.
Defense succeeds through better defense. One or the other must be a team’s priority. Players have to be clear on what the priority is. And in Atlanta, under Anderson, its offense. Ask him.
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Honestly the Thrashers never had a chance in the Devils game. Brodeur looked worn out from playing the night before but once Danis came in, The Devils had no problem. If the Thrashers want to cut back shots, they need a backcheck from the forwards. Kovy has been playing like he couldnt care less about the team. After he gave the puck away last night on the McAmmond goal, he didnt even try to get back. What kind of message is that sending to his team? Kovy can be the farthest back and his two linemates will pass him on the backcheck even though he’s the fastest one out there (sorry Max, it’s very close). Kovy needs to preach stronger defensive play from the forwards and lead them by example.
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He could let his play show others that he cares. But maybe he just doesn’t care? As a Thrashers fan, I know when he’s at his best, no one is better than Ilya Kovalchuk. But then there are times (like the McAmmond giveaway) that make me realize there is a different side to Ilya. Ilya didn’t play well last night, the fans realize it, the players realize it and HE realizes it. What I’m watching for now is, WILL he turn his defensive play around and lead will by example? WILL he care enough to motivate others in a way that doesn’t show up in the stats? (Example: backchecking,forchecking,motivation) That’s what I’ll be wathcing out for. If he truly cares about this team, he will lead by example and resign.
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Ya I watched this on MSG with “Doc” Emrick and the devils color guy and he shat all over our defense and he kept saying “Not to pile on atlanta but” some of those turnovers were soo lazy….and other than that assist kovy played a bad game and looked disinterested(scary, considering his contract situation) with that being said I bet he comes out roaring against montreal tommorow night tho, maybe one of those chip on the shoulder kind of things…
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“Attention to defensive play from the redline back and turnovers going forward. Talking in our own end. Paying attention in our own end. Paying attention in front and clearing rebounds- pretty much all areas of defensive hockey that need to be improved, except for goaltending. There’s just no way around it.”
There’s talking about it, then there’s DOING it…
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Yeah JD, I watch MSG telecasts all the time (I used to live in Jersey) and Doc and Chico are the two best commentators in the league. They’re also two of the nicest guys in the buisness. If a goalie is having a bad game Chico will say, “This kid’s had a trying night.” So for him to talk bad about Kovy really says something. Anyone whose watched a Thrashers game this month can see that Kovy’s play has gotten worse and worse. If I’m Don Waddell, I’m either going to try to sign him to a one or two year deal or trade him. There’s no way he’s going to sign for ten and frankly, if he’s going to play like that, I dont want him. I’d rather have a second liner who can play both ways than a superstar who will always be a minus player.
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John, those were two of the nicest guys you can think of in the business? I got so damned tired of this Chico guy dumping all over our boys within 5 minutes, I silenced the TV for the rest of the game! I mean, half the crap he said wasn’t even related to the game! It was like he wasn’t even watching it. At least in the first 5-10, maybe he improved, but I couldn’t stand him in that time.
Regardless, we didn’t play like we cared. Kovy didn’t play like he cared. Honestly, I don’t know what’s happened to him lately, but this isn’t the Kovy I love to watch, and this isn’t the same Thrashers team we had at the start of the season. Maybe it’s the contract situation that’s got him playing like this, maybe he’s honestly stopped caring. I don’t know. What I do know is that we have to shape up, or else the fan base we’ve slowly won over is going to leave.
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Yeah, Ben, the Thrashers are an outlier w/r/t shot differential. Of the 17 teams with a positive shot differential, 15 are +.500 in pts% (most are well above .500).
Of the 13 teams with a negative shot differential, only 4 have +.500 pts% (3 are at .500, 6 are sub-.500): Atlanta, Calgary, Colorado, and St. Louis.
So the correlation between shot differential and winning is pretty strong. Which, intuitively, makes perfect sense. If the Thrashers don’t figure out a way to play more in the other team’s end, they will need consistently high shooting percentages and superior goaltending to keep winning.
Can this be sustained long-term? Given the numbers, have the Thrashers been overachieving? There’s a lot riding on the answers.
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Cerberus, I didnt actually watch that particular game the other night so I dont know. You’re probably right though, Chico is a homer for sure. Either way, anyone who watches Devils games frequently will tell you that Doc and Chico are the two best commentators out there, or at least the best tandem in the NHL. I do agree with you that this is not the same team as the start of the season. Hopefully they can turn it around before the new year.
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